Towards robust and accurate estimates of the incubation time distribution, with focus on upper tail probabilities and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Quarantine length for individuals who have been at risk for infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been based on estimates of the incubation time distribution. The time of infection is often not known exactly, yielding data with an interval censored time origin. We give a detailed account of the data structure, likelihood formulation and assumptions usually made in the literature: (i) the risk of infection is assumed constant on the exposure window and (ii) the incubation time follows a specific parametric distribution. The impact of these assumptions remains unclear, especially for the right tail of the distribution which informs quarantine policy. We quantified bias in percentiles by means of simulation studies that mimic reality as close as possible. If assumption (i) is not correct, then median and upper percentiles are affected similarly, whereas misspecification of the parametric approach (ii) mainly affects upper percentiles. The latter may yield considerable bias. We suggest a semiparametric method that provides more robust estimates without the need of a parametric choice. Additionally, we used a simulation study to evaluate a method that has been suggested if all infection times are left censored. It assumes that the width of the interval from infection to latest possible exposure follows a uniform distribution. This assumption gave biased results in the exponential phase of an outbreak. Our application to open source data suggests that focus should be on the level of information in the observations, as expressed by the width of exposure windows, rather than the number of observations.

Taste function in children: normative values and associated factors.

BACKGROUND: Although less frequent than in adults, taste loss also occurs in childhood. "Taste Strips" are frequently used for diagnosing taste dysfunction; however, normative values are lacking for children. In this study, we will create normative values for the "Taste Strips" in children. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 609 children aged 6-15 years. "Taste Strips" were used to determine sweet, sour, salty, and bitter taste scores by a non-forced procedure. The 10th percentile was used to distinguish normal taste function from a reduced sense of taste. Multivariable generalized linear models (GLM) were estimated to study the effect of age (group), sex, and 6-n-propylthiouracil (PROP) status on taste function. RESULTS: Taste function changed with age, allowing for a distinction of three age groups: (I) 6-7 years, (II) 8-9 years, and (III) 10-15 years. Normative values were created for the age groups and boys and girls separately. Additionally, GLM showed a significant effect of (1) age (group) on sweet, salty, bitter, and total taste scores; (2) sex on sweet, sour, and total taste scores; and (3) PROP status on total taste scores. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided normative values for the "Taste Strips" in children, highlighting age- and sex-related differences. IMPACT: Taste dysfunction can be harmful and impacts quality of life, a topic that became increasingly important since the COVID-19 pandemic. Although taste dysfunction is thought to be rare in childhood, the detrimental impact of such dysfunction might be large, as children's eating habits are strongly influenced by input from the chemical senses. Measuring taste function may elucidate the relationship between taste dysfunction and disease, fostering the development of more appropriate supportive strategies. However, adequate tools are lacking for children. Normative values of the "Taste Strips" are now available for children, which bolster the clinical utility of this test.